After months of watching and reporting about the events leading up to the Derby, it is my conclusion that this is the toughest assignment a handicapper could be presented with, deciphering who will run big in the Kentucky Derby on May 3. Many have decent credentials, but most lack in overall quality at this time of their career. Young horses like these often improve in leaps and bounds as the spring begins, though, and I identified the cast of my main contenders.
You must start with PYRO, the mega-impressive colt who dusted his foes in Louisiana this spring for trainer Steve Asmussen. It surely helps that the son of Grade 1 winner Pulpit has been stabled with superhorse Curlin for much of his life, and it looks like some of that greatness has rubbed off on the three-year-old. He possesses a lethal late kick and has been brilliant on dirt, but his latest was a head-scratcher, when he finished well back in the Bluegrass Stakes over a synthetic oval. There is no questioning his brilliance, he is a striking individual and he oozes with class; he would not shock on Derby Day. Verdict: He has some holes and smells of a homerun or strikeout artist, but the colt is surely worth the risk at an overlaid expected price of 8-1.
BIG BROWN is the enigma in the field for conditioner Richard Dutrow, and it’s hard to know exactly what to do with the lightly-raced son of Boundary. A dominant winner in all three of his lifetime starts including a whitewashing in the Florida Derby last out, the chestnut is something of a freak of nature but three main questions arise: Does he have enough seasoning? How far can he carry his wealth of speed? Are his chronic foot issues behind him? A win by Big Brown would not come as a shock because of his ridiculous amount of ability, but he’s a shaky proposition as the surefire favorite. He might be that good, but he must overcome 70 years of history for the IEAH syndicate. Verdict: Brown could run them into the ground and draw off, or he might be compromised by greenness and finish unplaced. He could also be our only hope of a Triple Crown.
ADRIANO did little in his only dirt event in the Fountain of Youth when breaking from the 12 post, but the son of A.P. Indy is a monster on turf and synthetic, and he would surely be a huge factor if he took to the Churchill oval. Trained by expert horseman Graham Motion, the colt is bred to run all day and could offer the best value among the contenders. This wouldn’t be the worst stab in the world at 10-1 or more. He represents the value play, especially with Prado, who chose the colt over numerous other top threats. Verdict: More than worth it if he handles the dirt, but he could never be heard from if he doesn’t.
COLONEL JOHN is the king of the west and comes off a visually impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby for former Bob Baffert-assistant, Eoin Harty. The offspring of Tiznow is a model of consistency and is bred to handle the grueling 10 furlongs at Churchill. The biggest question mark hovering over the colt is his lack of a start on a conventional dirt surface. He may be slightly overbet, but the WinStar homebred gives the impression of a horse with a high cruising speed that should finish in the top four. Verdict: The safest and most logical play in here in the 6-1 range, but he’s more workmanlike than brilliant and I’ll let him beat me.
COWBOY CAL is another in the Adriano mold and remains a big mystery on the dirt. The well-bred Todd Pletcher trainee has the pedigree, the looks and a world of talent, to go along with the top connections in the game right now. The son of Giant’s Causeway is the one of only two horses (the other hasn’t raced since September, such is life) I bet upon in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager in Vegas, as I got 120-1 on him in early January, so he’s one of my rooting interests. He was a game second in the Bluegrass Stakes most recently. Verdict: I hope he wins, and he’ll more than likely be among the early tempo, if not on the lead in the 20-1 range.
I believe that DENINS OF CORK has as much potential as most of this field, but he’s hard to gauge due to his potential lack of fitness. The son of Harlan’s Holiday will be a popular play on Derby Day for those who study the Ragozin Sheets and he’s an obvious top three threat with anything close to his best. We predict he gets bet down to 10-1. Verdict: He wouldn’t be the worst play in the world on ability alone, if you’re willing to overlook his fifth-place finish in the Illinois Derby.
TALE OF EKATI is the final horse that I feel could conceivably win. He’s bred for greatness, had a good gut-wrenching prep for this and is trained by Barclay Tagg. MONBA (Maria’s Mon) comes off a brave win in the Bluegrass for Pletcher and is bred to run all day. The gray colt was a winner at Churchill at two and he comes in sharp. Verdict: Both of these are on the fringes for me.
For those looking for a few longshots to complete your exactas, trifectas and superfectas, we have dropped a few intriguing names for your reading pleasure:
COOL COAL MAN was also synthetic-ized in the Blue Grass Stakes but he seems like a perfect candidate to get a small piece of the pie for Zito. The son of champion Mineshaft captured the Fountain of Youth in impressive fashion and has the kind of push-button acceleration (think Pyro but less explosive) that should give him a chance with his best. I personally question his stamina and overall ability, but he’ll have every chance to be in it late with a career showing. The blue blood will likely be at least 15-1, possibly as high as 30-1.
I have been fixated with Z HUMOR since February, but I can’t exactly tell you why. He’s been average this campaign, posting a fifth, fourth and third for Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott. His speed numbers are on the slow side, like most of his competitors, and he wasn’t great as a juvenile. Produced from a daughter of tremendous stamina influence A. P. Indy, himself a son of the incomparable Seattle Slew, Z Humor has the right one-paced running style, connections and pedigree that could net him a third of fourth-place finish to balloon the exotics.
Trainer Barclay Tagg, of Funny Cide fame, has a pair of entrants in here, but he’s been touting BIG TRUCK since day one and we have the follow the brilliant horseman’s words. Sporting the least pedigree of the duo, the New York-bred has taken on all comers and is the type that could one-pace his way into a third or fourth-place finish. A Tagg-trained New York-bred, haven’t we read this storyline in the recent past?
SMOOTH AIR was moving beautifully down the lane in the Florida Derby in his prep for this and has never run a bad one for 72-year-old conditioner Bennie Stutts. The Florida-bred’s pedigree suggests he has no chance to handle the testing ten furlongs, although his past performances suggest otherwise. He’s another who should be 30-1 at the very least.
As for the others, you’ll find some nice horses in here that I simply couldn’t add to my list, but have ample credentials in their own right.
GAYEGO has done little wrong for Brazilian conditioner Paulo Lobo, finishing first or second in every start of his career, capped by a solid win in the Arkansas Derby last out. Many, including myself, question his pedigree in hopes of running ten furlongs, but he’s razor sharp and very consistent.
COURT VISION was at the top of my list after the Fountain of Youth, but I was disappointed in the colt’s progression (or lack thereof) in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last out, sitting well off a frenetic pace which he prefers, but never kicking into high gear. He has many positives, including trainer Bill Mott, but his Speed figures are not up to par at this point.
VISIONAIRE, winner of the Gotham Stakes two prior, has a solid late kick but is a huge mystery at ten furlongs. His connections are second to none and he should have a ton of fitness, but could I’m not sure that he can pass 15 horses in the final half-mile.
RECAPTURETHEGLORY romped in the Illinois Derby but has a questionable pedigree and lacks the experience of most of his foes. The colt could be prominent early, and he’d need a career effort from there to finish in the top three.
ANAK NAKAL won a stakes race here as a freshman but has yet to hit the board since. We can’t include or suggest him.
BOB BLACK JACK is fast but has also never raced on dirt, and it almost inconceivable of him getting 1 ¼ miles in May.
The filly EIGHT BELLES is a talent, no question, but she’d be far from a sure thing in the Kentucky Oaks, where she likely belongs. She’s no Rags to Riches.
PROUD SPELL is another filly who has thrown her hat in the ring. The daughter of Proud Citizen is an admirable performer who has won or placed in each of her lifetime tries, but she’s no Rags to Riches, either.
HALO NAJIB has logged a lot of miles since starting his career in October, and he’s one of the few runners in here who I could confidently say has the fitness to attempt this daunting task. He’d still be a major surprise, nonetheless.
BEHINDATTHEBAR has a ton of ability and cruised home a courageous winner of the Lexington Stakes in advance of this, but the Pletcher pupil has never won on dirt and is a real question mark at this distance.
There is excellent money in the exacta in a race like this and it’s a fun play that gives you multiple rooting interests. My $1 exacta box play would consist of:
Let’s box Pyro, Big Brown, Adriano, Cowboy Cal, Colonel John, Tale of Ekati and Denis of Cork (for a cost of $42). The average exacta payout over the past five years is more than $2,100.
The trifecta in the Kentucky Derby is not for the faint of heart, as it’s a daunting task to determine any outcome, especially with so many questions this year. This has to be regarded, to anyone who has opened a racing program within the last decade, as one of the more difficult assignments in Derby history. Varying surfaces, lack of overall quality, mostly questionable breeding for the distance, et al. cloud the picture. Here goes my $1 trifecta:
Denis of Cork, Pyro, Big Brown
With
Denis of Cork, Pyro, Big Brown, Adriano, Tale of Ekati, Colonel John, Cowboy Cal, Monba
With
Denis of Cork, Pyro, Big Brown, Adriano, Tale of Ekati, Colonel John, Cowboy Cal, Court Vision, Gayego, Big Truck, Smooth Air, Z Humor, Cool Coal Man, Monba, Visionaire
$273….that’s a pretty expensive ticket but maybe worth the risk, considering that the average trifecta over the past five years has generated a payout of more than $29,000. My advice would be to split a ticket of this nature among a handful or so of friends and have some fun! Thank me if you win, but just don’t blame me if you lose.
You must start with PYRO, the mega-impressive colt who dusted his foes in Louisiana this spring for trainer Steve Asmussen. It surely helps that the son of Grade 1 winner Pulpit has been stabled with superhorse Curlin for much of his life, and it looks like some of that greatness has rubbed off on the three-year-old. He possesses a lethal late kick and has been brilliant on dirt, but his latest was a head-scratcher, when he finished well back in the Bluegrass Stakes over a synthetic oval. There is no questioning his brilliance, he is a striking individual and he oozes with class; he would not shock on Derby Day. Verdict: He has some holes and smells of a homerun or strikeout artist, but the colt is surely worth the risk at an overlaid expected price of 8-1.
BIG BROWN is the enigma in the field for conditioner Richard Dutrow, and it’s hard to know exactly what to do with the lightly-raced son of Boundary. A dominant winner in all three of his lifetime starts including a whitewashing in the Florida Derby last out, the chestnut is something of a freak of nature but three main questions arise: Does he have enough seasoning? How far can he carry his wealth of speed? Are his chronic foot issues behind him? A win by Big Brown would not come as a shock because of his ridiculous amount of ability, but he’s a shaky proposition as the surefire favorite. He might be that good, but he must overcome 70 years of history for the IEAH syndicate. Verdict: Brown could run them into the ground and draw off, or he might be compromised by greenness and finish unplaced. He could also be our only hope of a Triple Crown.
ADRIANO did little in his only dirt event in the Fountain of Youth when breaking from the 12 post, but the son of A.P. Indy is a monster on turf and synthetic, and he would surely be a huge factor if he took to the Churchill oval. Trained by expert horseman Graham Motion, the colt is bred to run all day and could offer the best value among the contenders. This wouldn’t be the worst stab in the world at 10-1 or more. He represents the value play, especially with Prado, who chose the colt over numerous other top threats. Verdict: More than worth it if he handles the dirt, but he could never be heard from if he doesn’t.
COLONEL JOHN is the king of the west and comes off a visually impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby for former Bob Baffert-assistant, Eoin Harty. The offspring of Tiznow is a model of consistency and is bred to handle the grueling 10 furlongs at Churchill. The biggest question mark hovering over the colt is his lack of a start on a conventional dirt surface. He may be slightly overbet, but the WinStar homebred gives the impression of a horse with a high cruising speed that should finish in the top four. Verdict: The safest and most logical play in here in the 6-1 range, but he’s more workmanlike than brilliant and I’ll let him beat me.
COWBOY CAL is another in the Adriano mold and remains a big mystery on the dirt. The well-bred Todd Pletcher trainee has the pedigree, the looks and a world of talent, to go along with the top connections in the game right now. The son of Giant’s Causeway is the one of only two horses (the other hasn’t raced since September, such is life) I bet upon in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager in Vegas, as I got 120-1 on him in early January, so he’s one of my rooting interests. He was a game second in the Bluegrass Stakes most recently. Verdict: I hope he wins, and he’ll more than likely be among the early tempo, if not on the lead in the 20-1 range.
I believe that DENINS OF CORK has as much potential as most of this field, but he’s hard to gauge due to his potential lack of fitness. The son of Harlan’s Holiday will be a popular play on Derby Day for those who study the Ragozin Sheets and he’s an obvious top three threat with anything close to his best. We predict he gets bet down to 10-1. Verdict: He wouldn’t be the worst play in the world on ability alone, if you’re willing to overlook his fifth-place finish in the Illinois Derby.
TALE OF EKATI is the final horse that I feel could conceivably win. He’s bred for greatness, had a good gut-wrenching prep for this and is trained by Barclay Tagg. MONBA (Maria’s Mon) comes off a brave win in the Bluegrass for Pletcher and is bred to run all day. The gray colt was a winner at Churchill at two and he comes in sharp. Verdict: Both of these are on the fringes for me.
For those looking for a few longshots to complete your exactas, trifectas and superfectas, we have dropped a few intriguing names for your reading pleasure:
COOL COAL MAN was also synthetic-ized in the Blue Grass Stakes but he seems like a perfect candidate to get a small piece of the pie for Zito. The son of champion Mineshaft captured the Fountain of Youth in impressive fashion and has the kind of push-button acceleration (think Pyro but less explosive) that should give him a chance with his best. I personally question his stamina and overall ability, but he’ll have every chance to be in it late with a career showing. The blue blood will likely be at least 15-1, possibly as high as 30-1.
I have been fixated with Z HUMOR since February, but I can’t exactly tell you why. He’s been average this campaign, posting a fifth, fourth and third for Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott. His speed numbers are on the slow side, like most of his competitors, and he wasn’t great as a juvenile. Produced from a daughter of tremendous stamina influence A. P. Indy, himself a son of the incomparable Seattle Slew, Z Humor has the right one-paced running style, connections and pedigree that could net him a third of fourth-place finish to balloon the exotics.
Trainer Barclay Tagg, of Funny Cide fame, has a pair of entrants in here, but he’s been touting BIG TRUCK since day one and we have the follow the brilliant horseman’s words. Sporting the least pedigree of the duo, the New York-bred has taken on all comers and is the type that could one-pace his way into a third or fourth-place finish. A Tagg-trained New York-bred, haven’t we read this storyline in the recent past?
SMOOTH AIR was moving beautifully down the lane in the Florida Derby in his prep for this and has never run a bad one for 72-year-old conditioner Bennie Stutts. The Florida-bred’s pedigree suggests he has no chance to handle the testing ten furlongs, although his past performances suggest otherwise. He’s another who should be 30-1 at the very least.
As for the others, you’ll find some nice horses in here that I simply couldn’t add to my list, but have ample credentials in their own right.
GAYEGO has done little wrong for Brazilian conditioner Paulo Lobo, finishing first or second in every start of his career, capped by a solid win in the Arkansas Derby last out. Many, including myself, question his pedigree in hopes of running ten furlongs, but he’s razor sharp and very consistent.
COURT VISION was at the top of my list after the Fountain of Youth, but I was disappointed in the colt’s progression (or lack thereof) in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last out, sitting well off a frenetic pace which he prefers, but never kicking into high gear. He has many positives, including trainer Bill Mott, but his Speed figures are not up to par at this point.
VISIONAIRE, winner of the Gotham Stakes two prior, has a solid late kick but is a huge mystery at ten furlongs. His connections are second to none and he should have a ton of fitness, but could I’m not sure that he can pass 15 horses in the final half-mile.
RECAPTURETHEGLORY romped in the Illinois Derby but has a questionable pedigree and lacks the experience of most of his foes. The colt could be prominent early, and he’d need a career effort from there to finish in the top three.
ANAK NAKAL won a stakes race here as a freshman but has yet to hit the board since. We can’t include or suggest him.
BOB BLACK JACK is fast but has also never raced on dirt, and it almost inconceivable of him getting 1 ¼ miles in May.
The filly EIGHT BELLES is a talent, no question, but she’d be far from a sure thing in the Kentucky Oaks, where she likely belongs. She’s no Rags to Riches.
PROUD SPELL is another filly who has thrown her hat in the ring. The daughter of Proud Citizen is an admirable performer who has won or placed in each of her lifetime tries, but she’s no Rags to Riches, either.
HALO NAJIB has logged a lot of miles since starting his career in October, and he’s one of the few runners in here who I could confidently say has the fitness to attempt this daunting task. He’d still be a major surprise, nonetheless.
BEHINDATTHEBAR has a ton of ability and cruised home a courageous winner of the Lexington Stakes in advance of this, but the Pletcher pupil has never won on dirt and is a real question mark at this distance.
There is excellent money in the exacta in a race like this and it’s a fun play that gives you multiple rooting interests. My $1 exacta box play would consist of:
Let’s box Pyro, Big Brown, Adriano, Cowboy Cal, Colonel John, Tale of Ekati and Denis of Cork (for a cost of $42). The average exacta payout over the past five years is more than $2,100.
The trifecta in the Kentucky Derby is not for the faint of heart, as it’s a daunting task to determine any outcome, especially with so many questions this year. This has to be regarded, to anyone who has opened a racing program within the last decade, as one of the more difficult assignments in Derby history. Varying surfaces, lack of overall quality, mostly questionable breeding for the distance, et al. cloud the picture. Here goes my $1 trifecta:
Denis of Cork, Pyro, Big Brown
With
Denis of Cork, Pyro, Big Brown, Adriano, Tale of Ekati, Colonel John, Cowboy Cal, Monba
With
Denis of Cork, Pyro, Big Brown, Adriano, Tale of Ekati, Colonel John, Cowboy Cal, Court Vision, Gayego, Big Truck, Smooth Air, Z Humor, Cool Coal Man, Monba, Visionaire
$273….that’s a pretty expensive ticket but maybe worth the risk, considering that the average trifecta over the past five years has generated a payout of more than $29,000. My advice would be to split a ticket of this nature among a handful or so of friends and have some fun! Thank me if you win, but just don’t blame me if you lose.
3 comments:
Thanks MOOCH!!!!.....Now if i could just get Rick to post a picture of everyone when he uses a nick name I will be OK
Interesting choice... close to mine, as given to me by my painter... hey, it's better than the newsboy. Trifecta: Pyro, Colonel John & Denis of Cork. If I win, I pay Syracuse for one year's tuition. If I lose, I don't get to go to Starbuck's on Sunday.
Well, that didn't work out....
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